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A quick answer is that there is no hard and fast rule as to what is significant. However, if you look at the numbers published in Johnson Matthey’s annual Platinum Reviews, then figures below 50,000 ounces are not usually reported on specifically. However, there is no hard and fast rule on this as we do comment on some applications below this amount. What is interesting is often the year-to-year changes in consumption rather than its absolute size.

In terms of what the market could be, you can find surveys of current commercial activity on fuel cells on the website Fuel Cell Today.

Other organisations have carried out studies on potential uptake. One is on the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) website, which gives some predictions over the very much longer term.

In 2003, the U.S. DoE commissioned a report by TIAX LLC on “Platinum Availability and Economics for PEMFC Commercialization”. This study made a number of predictions based on assumptions about the future use of fuel cells in vehicle applications.

Currently, a fuel cell for a vehicle requires 50-100 g platinum as the catalyst. However, platinum loadings are continuing to fall. The current industry target is to achieve a loading of 15 g platinum per 70 kW engine, while a U.S. DoE goal is around 12 g per 70 kW engine.

One model within the 2003 TIAX study simulates the effect of fuel cell vehicle (FCV) commercialisation on platinum demand. It suggests that 10 years after the widespread introduction of FCVs, assuming an annual production of 5 million FCVs at 30 g platinum per vehicle, fuel cell demand for platinum could amount to 4.8 million ounces.

In the longer term, if population and per capita vehicle numbers increase in line with current predictions, then the TIAX study predicts that in the year 2050 a total of around 70 to 90 million vehicles could expect to be sold in the U.S., Western Europe, Japan, China and India. If FCV market penetration reached 50%, at a loading of 15 g platinum per vehicle, then demand for platinum for FCVs could increase to at least 16.3 million ounces for the year 2050 in these regions.

‘Secondary’ platinum (from recycled sources, including spent fuel cells) will become an important resource to supplement increased primary production. The U.S. DoE assumes that recycling efficiency of platinum from fuel cells will be 95%, and from automotive applications, 90%.

Answer posted 21 November 2006.